Decades of research on what makes some people consistently better at predicting the future. 'Superforecasters' aren't smarter — they update beliefs incrementally, quantify uncertainty, seek disconfirming evidence, and avoid ideology. Investing IS forecasting, and Tetlock's IARPA-funded tournaments proved ordinary people can outperform intelligence analysts. Celebrity and accuracy are inversely correlated.

The case for it, the case against, and the rest of the canon open with Pro.