Superforecasting
Decades of research on what makes some people consistently better at predicting the future. 'Superforecasters' aren't smarter — they update beliefs incrementally, quantify uncertainty, seek disconfirming evidence, and avoid ideology. Investing IS forecasting, and Tetlock's IARPA-funded tournaments proved ordinary people can outperform intelligence analysts. Celebrity and accuracy are inversely correlated.
A block of readers say the back half repeats the same handful of lessons, use numbers, revise your estimate, stay probabilistic, once the opening hook fades, complaining of “long and overly folksy explanations.” Readers who already knew Kahneman, Taleb, or Nate Silver call this a superficial synthesis of those three writers, with one dismissing the prose as “wrote his book at a mid brow style.” Some expected a manual on forecasting technique and instead got an extended detour into foreign-policy case studies, feeling the book “delivers in propaganda, US political criticism and so on.” A reader with an evidence-based-medicine background argues the book conflates a lot of evidence with good evidence, pointing at how it treats the pile of pre-Iraq-War intelligence as though volume alone settled the question, or as one reviewer puts padded arguments generally, “a really big pile of crap is still just crap.”
The case for it and the rest of the canon open with Pro.
