Black Swans are highly improbable events with massive consequences that are rationalized after the fact as if they were predictable. Taleb argues that our models, predictions, and risk management tools are dangerously blind to extreme events — and that these events are where the real action is. He conceptually predicted the 2008 crisis before it happened, which tends to strengthen an argument.

The case for it, the case against, and the rest of the canon open with Pro.